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Iron and steel production has been limited, steel market follow-up trend is intertwined.
For the steel market after the traditional "silver ten", the steel traders dare not take too much hope.
According to Langer Steel Cloud Merchant Platform monitoring data, after the "11" holiday, steel futures and spot prices have risen. As of October 9, the closing price of the main rebar contract was 4,039 yuan / ton, up 68 yuan / ton, or 1.7% from the previous day; the average price of grade 3 rebar with 25 mm diameter in ten major cities in China was 4,532 yuan / ton, up 14 yuan / ton, or 0.3% from the previous day.
"After the holiday steel prices rise, steel traders are not optimistic about the trend of the latter part of the steel market." Peng Cuiting, analyst at Lange Iron and Steel News Center, told the interface news, but also generally indicated that it would not crash.
Qiao Zhongmin, general manager of Beijing Ji Zhao commerce Co., Ltd., said that the trend of steel market in October tended to be stable and downward. He believes that the main factor is the demand side, "the current inventory growth and real estate data, the situation is not optimistic, coupled with trade friction, exports will certainly be affected. The state has issued policies to supplement infrastructure shortcomings, but the design evaluation, funding sources need time, can not immediately reflect the demand.
Li Dong, the steel manager of Beijing Marriott, also believes that the steel market will shake down. "At present, Beijing and North China (steel) is in a low inventory operation, but recently the steel factory arrival is more sufficient, inventory growth is faster. If the demand for steel is insufficient, the pressure will be formed. He said, and the heating season restrictions on the construction site, will form a pressure on steel sales.
Zhang Yahui, general manager of Beijing Sino Hong Kong Trading Co. Ltd., holds the opposite view. He said that October was the peak demand period for the construction site, the eleventh small holiday period, the company's shipment situation is not too good, after the holiday shipment situation improved. "Inventory is not very high at present, the price is limited, and the price is high." He said.
Wang Guoqing, director of Lange Steel Research Center, also told Interface News that the cost of supporting steel prices in the later period was further strengthened because of high raw material prices.
"Steel social inventories recovered, but the increase was small." Wang Guoqing said that the limited production of environmental protection in October will continue to inhibit steel production.
According to the "Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and its surrounding areas in the autumn and winter of 2018-2019 comprehensive air pollution control action plan" requirements, from October this year to March next year, the average concentration of PM2.5 in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and its surrounding areas decreased by about 3% year-on-year, and the number of days of severe and above pollution decreased by about 3%. Starting in October, local governments will strictly enforce the special emission limits for atmospheric pollutants from thermal power, steel, petrochemical, chemical, non-ferrous (non-alumina), cement and industrial boilers.
Interface journalists learned that on Oct. 8, the Guye District of Tangshan, an important iron and steel town in China, decided to advance the implementation of the heating season of iron and steel enterprises to limit production by 50%.
Guye district emphasizes that the proportion of peak production in autumn and winter in iron and steel enterprises in the past 2018-2019 years should not be lower than that of last year. The ratio was 50% last year.
At present, the proportion of comprehensive peak production in Guye is 21.7%. Guye District Autumn and Winter Iron and Steel Industry Crosspeak Production Leading Group Office October 8, said that in view of the fact that some steel enterprises still have to bear the winter residential heating function, the ratio of crosspeak production during the heating period will be reduced appropriately, to complete the task not less than last year, it is necessary for the steel enterprises to collect heating ahead of schedule for a month and a half and postpone heating. Set up half a month to execute part of the peak production.
Ma Li, chief analyst of Lange Steel Network, told Interface News that Tangshan Guye District has three large-scale steel plants and 10 blast furnaces, with an annual capacity of about 7.2 million tons, accounting for about 5% of Tangshan's steel production capacity. The average daily output of steel affected by the previous staggered peak production in Guye District is 4000 tons. If the ratio of limited production is raised to 50%, the average daily output will be affected by 10000 tons.
In addition to the heating season steel production limit, Wang Guoqing believes that the central bank to lower the monetary easing, infrastructure projects centralized, will lead to the recovery of market confidence and the release of downstream demand, market supply and demand will remain in good shape.
"It is expected that the steel market will show a strong trend in October." Wang Guoqing said. (source: Interface)
According to Langer Steel Cloud Merchant Platform monitoring data, after the "11" holiday, steel futures and spot prices have risen. As of October 9, the closing price of the main rebar contract was 4,039 yuan / ton, up 68 yuan / ton, or 1.7% from the previous day; the average price of grade 3 rebar with 25 mm diameter in ten major cities in China was 4,532 yuan / ton, up 14 yuan / ton, or 0.3% from the previous day.
"After the holiday steel prices rise, steel traders are not optimistic about the trend of the latter part of the steel market." Peng Cuiting, analyst at Lange Iron and Steel News Center, told the interface news, but also generally indicated that it would not crash.
Qiao Zhongmin, general manager of Beijing Ji Zhao commerce Co., Ltd., said that the trend of steel market in October tended to be stable and downward. He believes that the main factor is the demand side, "the current inventory growth and real estate data, the situation is not optimistic, coupled with trade friction, exports will certainly be affected. The state has issued policies to supplement infrastructure shortcomings, but the design evaluation, funding sources need time, can not immediately reflect the demand.
Li Dong, the steel manager of Beijing Marriott, also believes that the steel market will shake down. "At present, Beijing and North China (steel) is in a low inventory operation, but recently the steel factory arrival is more sufficient, inventory growth is faster. If the demand for steel is insufficient, the pressure will be formed. He said, and the heating season restrictions on the construction site, will form a pressure on steel sales.
Zhang Yahui, general manager of Beijing Sino Hong Kong Trading Co. Ltd., holds the opposite view. He said that October was the peak demand period for the construction site, the eleventh small holiday period, the company's shipment situation is not too good, after the holiday shipment situation improved. "Inventory is not very high at present, the price is limited, and the price is high." He said.
Wang Guoqing, director of Lange Steel Research Center, also told Interface News that the cost of supporting steel prices in the later period was further strengthened because of high raw material prices.
"Steel social inventories recovered, but the increase was small." Wang Guoqing said that the limited production of environmental protection in October will continue to inhibit steel production.
According to the "Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and its surrounding areas in the autumn and winter of 2018-2019 comprehensive air pollution control action plan" requirements, from October this year to March next year, the average concentration of PM2.5 in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and its surrounding areas decreased by about 3% year-on-year, and the number of days of severe and above pollution decreased by about 3%. Starting in October, local governments will strictly enforce the special emission limits for atmospheric pollutants from thermal power, steel, petrochemical, chemical, non-ferrous (non-alumina), cement and industrial boilers.
Interface journalists learned that on Oct. 8, the Guye District of Tangshan, an important iron and steel town in China, decided to advance the implementation of the heating season of iron and steel enterprises to limit production by 50%.
Guye district emphasizes that the proportion of peak production in autumn and winter in iron and steel enterprises in the past 2018-2019 years should not be lower than that of last year. The ratio was 50% last year.
At present, the proportion of comprehensive peak production in Guye is 21.7%. Guye District Autumn and Winter Iron and Steel Industry Crosspeak Production Leading Group Office October 8, said that in view of the fact that some steel enterprises still have to bear the winter residential heating function, the ratio of crosspeak production during the heating period will be reduced appropriately, to complete the task not less than last year, it is necessary for the steel enterprises to collect heating ahead of schedule for a month and a half and postpone heating. Set up half a month to execute part of the peak production.
Ma Li, chief analyst of Lange Steel Network, told Interface News that Tangshan Guye District has three large-scale steel plants and 10 blast furnaces, with an annual capacity of about 7.2 million tons, accounting for about 5% of Tangshan's steel production capacity. The average daily output of steel affected by the previous staggered peak production in Guye District is 4000 tons. If the ratio of limited production is raised to 50%, the average daily output will be affected by 10000 tons.
In addition to the heating season steel production limit, Wang Guoqing believes that the central bank to lower the monetary easing, infrastructure projects centralized, will lead to the recovery of market confidence and the release of downstream demand, market supply and demand will remain in good shape.
"It is expected that the steel market will show a strong trend in October." Wang Guoqing said. (source: Interface)
