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October steel prices or stable downward

China and the United States trade war tariffs levy, the Federal Reserve interest rate cycle, the People's Bank of China issued a reduction in standards news, the Finance Minister said that the annual tax cuts are expected to exceed 1.3 trillion yuan, Linfen Shanxi production restrictions and other news, the 11 holidays from domestic and foreign news came one after another. How will the steel price trend run in the next October? Steel traders have their own views.

On the first trading day after the end of the holiday, the futures market experienced a broader shock followed by a late rally, spot market prices fell and rose again, and market sentiment experienced an opening wait-and-see. According to the monitoring data of Langer Steel Cloud Platform, as of October 9, 2018, the closing price of the main screw steel contract was 4 039 yuan per ton, up 68 yuan per ton from the previous day; the average price of the third-class screw steel (25mm) in ten major cities in China was 4 532 yuan per ton, up 14 yuan per ton from the previous day, and the prices of futures and spot were all out. There has been a certain increase.

Although post-festival prices have risen, but for the late trend of the steel market, steel traders are not optimistic, but also generally said that will not fall sharply.

For the steel market in October, Beijing Ji Zhaonian Trading Co., Ltd. General Manager Qiao Zhongmin believes that "should be in a stable downward trend. In the final analysis, the main factor is the demand side, the current inventory growth and real estate data, the situation is not optimistic, coupled with trade war exports will certainly be affected. Despite the introduction of national policies to supplement infrastructure shortcomings, but design evaluation, funding sources need time, can not immediately reflect the demand.

Li Dong, manager of Beijing Marriott Steel, said that the steel market should oscillate downward in October. Although the current low-inventory operation in Beijing and North China, but the recent arrival of steel plants is more sufficient, inventory growth is faster. If the demand for iron and steel is insufficient, the pressure will be formed. In addition, heating season constraints on the site, the sale of steel will form pressure, so he is not very optimistic about the steel market in October.

Zhang Yahui, general manager of Beijing Sino-Hong Kong Trading Co., Ltd., said spot prices are stronger than futures, and the current price is expected to go poor. The price depends either on the spot or on the futures market, or on demand. October is supposed to be a time of strong demand for construction sites. Although the company's shipments during the National Day are not very good, but the first day after the holiday shipments are good. Now the stock is not very high, so the price reduction is limited, the possibility of price rise is also very high.

Range Steel Network experts said that at present, no matter the international or domestic news, market bullish news is still in the stage of intertwining, from the industrial side of the supply and demand side will not change significantly temporarily, need to pay attention to the quantification of post-season transactions, downstream demand release, post-season inventory changes and so on. If the inventory data exceed market expectations, or the market digests slowly, the market will still adjust downward before another wave of market opens. On the contrary, prices are expected to stabilize or rebound slightly. But in the short term, the direction of the steel market still needs a contest before it appears.

Wang Guoqing, director of the Lange Steel Research Center, said that because of the high price of raw materials, the supporting effect of cost on steel prices in the later period was further strengthened. Although steel social inventories recovered again, the increase was small. Environmental restrictions on production in October will continue to restrain steel production. Infrastructure projects will concentrate on combining the central bank's monetary easing policy to restore market confidence and release downstream demand. Market supply and demand relations will remain in good shape. The steel market is expected to show a strong volatility in October. (source: Lange steel)
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