Home > News > Snails hit a new low in April, exacerbated by emotional panic, after a crash or rebound.

Snails hit a new low in April, exacerbated by emotional panic, after a crash or rebound.

Today's opening day, black futures continued to fall, hitting a four-month low of 3813 yuan, which is only a week after last Monday's (12) low of 3818 yuan. Spot market fell faster, the first impact is billet prices, the weekend plunged 90 yuan, finished product prices also tend to downward adjustment.

The market generally believes that the adjustment is expected, and this year's adjustment is earlier than previous years, which is widely seen in the industry. First, the price is high, second, the output is high, third, the profit of steel mills is high, "three high" has a great impact on the market, from which the market exists the demand for adjustment. The fatal thing is that the weakening of future expectations is reflected in the leading futures market, which is accelerated by the decline of the futures market, and the spot market is running back to cash.

From the recent market performance, the spot decline is faster than futures, and the northeast and south of Guangzhou region has increased resources, fierce market competition and a larger price reduction, but the overall market turnover is unsatisfactory, Hangzhou and other individual areas have a base.

The market entered the "winter" ahead of panic.

When people lament "autumn" is too short, there are four doubts. Even if expected weakness is recognized by the market, even if there is panic. But such a large retreat and the slump of steel bilge are still beyond the imagination of the market.

In addition to some factors of the market itself, the relationship with the market fundamentals is not very big, because at present, except for the expected changes, the market fundamentals have not been fundamentally reversed. In the case of such low inventory and terminal demand, such a large adjustment is still beyond expectations. The impact of emotional and financial aspects is considerable, the market speculation is expected, expected to weaken, the wind is moving, triggering emotional panic, capital use of market sentiment to write articles.

Tangshan area is the distributing center of domestic steel market. It is the epitome of steel market, and is the image of all living beings in steel market. Recently, the market rumors, since the beginning of October, a large Zhejiang household combined with Tangshan households to make use of the advantages of funds, in order to short Tangshan spot in a combination way. Reverse base operation is performed at near positive base points. The margin of spot traders is at least 100 million. However, in the face of two market opportunities to release profits of 160 points, the company conservatively estimates that it will make at least 60 million profits at the actual cost of 40 million yuan, but it is puzzling that the company did not choose to liquidate its warehouse in order to obtain Tangshan Steel Trade and its win-win outcome, but still chose to continue to close the spot at a low price. Eventually, Tangshan billets, strip and even steel fell continuously. Continuous breakdown of small traders margin, and trigger chain turbulence in the market. The figure and power of capital operation can be seen.

But the market should not panic blindly and trample on it, which will aggravate the turbulence of the market and even indirectly make the steel market advance into winter. On the other hand, a big retreat beyond market expectations may indicate the arrival of a phased rebound. But at the same time, we must see that the current conditions do not support the big rebound in the steel market conditions, and can not be too high expectations.

However, after many unsuccessful counter-attacks, the market psychological fatigue is obvious. If the panic mood persists, the futures fall less, the spot accelerates, and the possibility of the spot closing to the futures is relatively greater.

And this year, futures snails have repeatedly shocked. For short-term experts and some industry hedgers, there are reasons for fighting. For long-term speculation, the speculative value has weakened. Compared with the stock market which has been at the bottom in recent years, it is clear that the stock market has more speculative value. Therefore, this part of the fund movement also needs attention.

In terms of price, according to monitoring data, the average price of 25mm threaded steel in key cities of China today is 4419 yuan (ton price, the same below), 76 yuan lower than yesterday; the average price of 6.5mm high-speed line in key cities of China is 4650 yuan, 82 yuan lower than yesterday; the average price of 5.5mm hot-rolled coil plate in key cities of China is 3863 yuan, 28 yuan lower than yesterday. The average price of 1.0mm cold plate in key cities of China is 4573 yuan, 9 yuan lower than yesterday; the average price of 20mm medium plate in key cities of China is 4047 yuan, 68 yuan lower than yesterday.

In terms of raw materials, the price of 150*150 carbon square billet in Tangshan is 3580 yuan today, up 30 yuan from yesterday; the price of 61.5% Australian PB iron ore powder in Jingtanggang is 585 yuan, up 5 yuan from yesterday; and the price of quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Tangshan is 2700 yuan from yesterday, which is flat. (source: Lange steel)
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