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Snails surged over 100 ¥, can the steel market get out of the rising market?

Today's opening, the black department continues to be in a wide range of shocks, and there was a V-shaped rebound in the tail disc (this is the second time since this week), snail performance is more obvious. Futures performance is faster than spot, spot prices are still dominated by weak operation, except for the rebound of billet prices. However, with the rebound of phase steel, some regions and varieties traded slightly better than yesterday.

Recently, the market is dominated by the futures market, the fundamentals have been weakened. Affected by the decline of black futures, the market sentiment is slightly pessimistic, and the spot market is basically in a downward state. In addition, the market rumors that some steel mills in Xuzhou are about to resume production have an impact on market sentiment, adding the influence of peripheral negative factors, and now the two-way resonance declines.

As the dust settled in the mid-term elections in the United States and the results were basically in line with expectations, the focus of the market turned to the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in the early morning of tomorrow, and investors were more concerned about the fast rate increase. At present, the market generally believes that the recent U.S. economic data has not changed much, so it is not enough to change the December rate hike and the plan to continue to raise interest rates next year.

At home, import and export data are released today. Data show that China exported 55.0 million tons of steel in October, an increase of 10.4% compared with the same period last year, and the cumulative export of steel in January-October was 58.413 million tons, a decrease of 9.3% compared with the same period last year. Imported steel products 1.138 million tons, an increase of 19.8% year-on-year; China imported 11.103 million tons of steel in January-October, an increase of 1.3% year-on-year. Export figures were stronger than expected. Another important data is that excavator data show great performance. Statistics show that excavator sales grew 44.9% year on year in October, while domestic market sales (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) increased by 39.6% year on year. Export sales of 1782 units, an increase of 104.6% over the same period. It shows that the effect of capital investment policy is obvious. In the long run, with the support of national financial policy, the rebound of infrastructure is expected to continue, which is good for the domestic steel market.

At present, the fundamentals have not changed significantly, the two reservoirs have slowed down slightly faster than the same period last year, while the thread production has decreased. However, due to the weakening of market expectations for late environmental production restriction, the lack of further speculation and major positive stimulus, the overall performance has entered a stagnation period. In the short term, the market is still facing greater uncertainty.

Looking from the futures market, although there is a rebound today, the main force is mainly shown in the reduction of warehouse up, the reduction of nearly 100,000 hands in the futures tail. From the current situation, 1901 is facing a change of warehouse, a large number of short positions moved to 1905, which provides the possibility for the market to continue to rise, but at present both sides are more cautious, and bulls dare not rashly build warehouses. And most of them fight and retreat, wait and see, wait for the opportunity, so even if there is upward space will not be very large, the role of the lead on the spot is limited. Considering the low inventory level, downstream rush still exists, even if the futures market is back to its original shape again, the spot adjustment space will not be very large.

In terms of price, according to monitoring data, the average price of 25mm threaded steel in key cities in China today is 4630 yuan (ton price, the same below), 18 yuan lower than yesterday; the average price of_6.5mm high-speed line in key cities in China is 4872 yuan lower than yesterday, 22 yuan lower than yesterday; and the average price of 5.5mm hot-rolled coil in key cities in China is 4032 yuan, 25 yuan lower than yesterday. The average price of 1.0mm cold plate in key cities in China is 4220 yuan, down 14 yuan from yesterday; the average price of 20mm medium plate in key cities in China is 4263 yuan, down 15 yuan from yesterday.

In terms of raw materials, today, Changli 150*150 carbon square billet in Tangshan is 3820 yuan, up 10 yuan from yesterday; Beijing-Tanggang 61.5% grade PB iron ore powder in Australia is 587 yuan, down 3 yuan from yesterday; and Tangshan quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke with tax arrival price is 2700 yuan, which is flat compared with yesterday. (source: Lange steel)
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