Home > News > The Ministry of industry and Commerce expects that steel prices will continue to operate at a high level in the four quarter.

The Ministry of industry and Commerce expects that steel prices will continue to operate at a high level in the four quarter.

On November 14, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released data showing that with the deepening of structural reform on the supply side, the overall operation of the iron and steel industry in the first three quarters of 2018 showed a sustained and good development trend.

In the first nine months, the output of pig iron, steel and steel in China was 580 million tons, 700 million tons and 820 million tons respectively, up by 1.2%, 6.1% and 7.2% respectively. It is estimated that China's steel output will reach more than 900 million tons in 2018. In the first three quarters, the comprehensive steel price index averaged 116.3 points, up 11.9% year-on-year, and the steel price is at a relatively high level. From the fourth quarter of this year to the beginning of next year, steel prices are expected to remain high, but in the long run, the trend of high steel prices is unsustainable.

Meanwhile, on the same day, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that in October, industrial raw coal production above the scale accelerated, crude oil production increased, natural gas and electricity production remained stable, and energy production overall remained stable. Among them, the output of raw coal is 310 million tons, an increase of 8.0%, crude oil production is 16.69 million tons, an increase of 0.3%, crude oil processing is 52.78 million tons, an increase of 4.6%, natural gas production is 13.4 billion cubic meters, an increase of 75%, and power generation is 533 billion kWh, an increase of 4.8%.

In response, Liu Aihua, a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, said that the central government has issued a series of policies and measures for environmental protection and pollution control, one of the three major battles this year, which are reflected in the data. For example, the value-added of high-energy-consuming industries increased by 6.9% in October, down 0.8 percentage points from September, and increased by 6.4% in the first 10 months. From the output of specific products, we can also see that steel and cement are at a low growth level, so the overall effect of Environmental Protection Policy Governance is relatively obvious.

Liu Xiangdong, deputy researcher of the Economic Research Department of the China International Economic Exchange Center, said in an interview with the Securities Daily yesterday that at present, the production of raw coal and crude oil in industries above the scale increased and the consumption of raw materials accelerated in October, which is related to the recent acceleration of capital investment and the steady progress of the policy of capacity removal.

"In the next two years, the structural reform of the supply side of iron and steel and coal industry will focus on structural optimization, that is, enhancing the industrial concentration of iron and steel and coal industry and improving quality and efficiency, thus basically digesting the blind expansion caused by the pre-stimulus policy, and making the enterprise's production behavior more rational and efficient in the future." Liu Xiangdong said.

Liu Xiangdong said that in the process of capacity removal, the main obstacle is to guard against resurrection. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a long-term mechanism to prevent excessive production of enterprises, that is, to make full use of market competition mechanism to achieve self-clearance by formulating environmental protection standards, and to minimize administrative intervention to achieve the goal of capacity reduction through production reduction. (source: Securities Daily)
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