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The price of steel bar may fall

On June 17th, the latest domestic steel market, rebar ** main RB1110 contract on the 16th morning to 4787 yuan / ton slightly higher volatility, eventually closing at 4781 yuan / ton, than the 15th settlement price fell 29 yuan / ton, or 0.6% . Previously, after a significant increase in the end of 2010, rebar began a deep correction in early 2011, when the lowest price in March when the rate of recovery once reached 10%.

Steel Steel Information learned through relevant reports that, with the recent months' adjustments, the market volume was light, and the rebar's open interest was only 700,000 lots, which is a low level since its listing. However, with the continuous decline in inventories, the demand for restocking in the market has gradually increased, and the rebar seems to have picked up.

Relevant people believe that since June, since the limited power production, the construction of affordable housing and construction steel represented by rebar in the previous period have shown a tendency of both production and sales, rebar will enter the upstream channel in the later period.

Some stakeholders also believe that with the continuous emergence of bad steel markets, the steel market fundamentals will tend to be weaker after the peak season, coupled with technical breakthroughs in the rebar has not been able to break through, the atmosphere continues to spread.

According to the latest market analysis of steel products, China's rebar inventory began to decline in March from 2011, with an average decline rate of 170,000 tons per week. If this rate continues to decline, the rebar social inventory will be reduced to 2010 in mid-July 2011. The low of 4.17 million tons during the year, and during this period of time, most of the projects were at the peak of the start of construction, and the downstream demand reached the highest peak. At this time, the inventory also fell to a low level, and the market supply and demand relationship also changed. Therefore, when the inventory starts to increase as scheduled, it will also lead to an increase in rebar prices.

However, it is reported that domestic crude steel production in May was 60.25 million tons, easily refreshing the monthly production record, and the construction steel represented by rebar showed a prosperous situation of production and sales, and the steel mills would be opened under the stimulation of higher profit levels. With full production capacity at full capacity, the [strong destocking" trend of domestic rebar stocks has reversed, and supply in the latter period will likely remain high.

At present, the steel market has entered the off-season of traditional steel consumption, and the South has entered the rainy season one after another. This will undoubtedly also have an impact on construction and steel transportation. According to the latest market of steel products, the rebar spot market price fell in some cities in East China, Central China, Northwest China, and North China; the prices in South China, Northeast China, and Southwest China were stable overall. The price of Hangzhou West City HRB400 20mm dropped to 4,820 yuan/ton. In addition, the rainy weather over the past few days will also affect the quality of rebar to a certain extent, as well as the reasons for the recent turnover of steel traders in the middle of the year, which has also caused suppliers to lower prices and shipping.* *.

As of the end of May, China's affordable housing starts 3.4 million units, and only about 30% of all the social housing units are progressing slowly. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has postponed the latest start time of 10 million security housing units to the end of November and is expected to be longer in the mission time window. Under the background of relatively large monetary tightening pressure in the first half of the year, it is difficult for affordable housing to pose a substantial boost to demand from the steel market in the short term.

In addition, on the international front, the growth of major economies in the world is weak and the real economic situation is not optimistic. Global inflation is high and the pressure of monetary tightening has increased. The debt crisis in Europe and the US debt crisis are hanging high. The PIGS issues such as Greece and Portugal have frequently added more variables to the global fragile recovery.

To sum up, steel-steel information integration analysis of the current data found that the current steel market, although the current steel market has high spot cost support, but due to the actual situation is not optimistic, there is still no strong support in the latter part of the short-term steel market It is difficult to stabilize, steel prices may continue to weaken, and rebar is more likely to fall.
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