Home > News > This winter stock market is not optimistic.

This winter stock market is not optimistic.

With the ups and downs of the mood, the steel market in October in the high shocks near the end, "Gold Nine Silver Ten" regrettably ended.

Last week, the overall performance of domestic steel market was high and volatile. At the beginning of Zhou Dynasty, due to the state-level leadership and the collective shouts of "leaders" to maintain the stability of the market, while a number of underpinning policies frequently produce a superposition effect, the black line was boosted by this and the market confidence was restored. In the middle of the day, the uncertainty about the capital market and the final implementation of the policy rose again, with the black series falling across the board and the spot fluctuating narrowly, except for the slightly stronger snail. Near the weekend, black futures rose volatility, market confidence returned, driving spot prices rose steadily and slightly. Since November 1 is facing the critical point of the new national standard for the production of thread steel, the production cost of thread steel in steel mills has been greatly increased, and the price of thread steel has also been promoted. The market pattern of "long strength plate weak" is still continuing.

Monitoring data show that as of October 26, 2018, Langer Steel Composite Price Index was 170.2 points, 0.45% higher than the previous week, 0.21% higher than the end of last month; Langer Steel Long Sheet Price Index was 191.6 points, 1.25% higher than the previous week, 2.05% higher than the end of last month; Langer Steel Sheet Price Index was 151.2 points, 0.29% lower than the previous week At the end of last month, it dropped by 1.48%.

For the upcoming November steel market, will its internal and external operating environment change, the overall steel prices continue to oscillate or enter the seasonal off-season, can we usher in the winter storage market? In the past three years, due to the steel market is in an upward cycle, steel trade and winter storage enthusiasm is very high, the results of poor returns. Especially in last winter storage, there was a concentrated volume, and the spring market was slow to start. What is the situation this year? Ma Guanghui, analyst at Lange Iron and Steel Research Center, said this year's winter storage market is not optimistic. We need to pay close attention to the following points:

First, the implementation of environmental protection and limited production in winter. At present, refinement rules such as peak staggering and grading production restriction have been implemented one after another in various steel mills, and environmental protection supervision will continue to go deep. Ma Guanghui believes that although the flexibility of this year's production restriction is higher, the market's expectation of supply contraction has changed, but the overall tight winter direction should not change significantly. At present, some specifications of South market have been in short supply.

Next is downstream demand. With the increase of downside risks at home and abroad, policies such as stimulating domestic demand and consumption have been introduced one after another. Infrastructure projects and liquidity release at the end of the year have become major issues. November has already entered the seasonal off-season earlier for the north, but it is a good time for the southern market to rush to stock up. At present, the pace of purchasing around the country is faster, inventory is declining significantly, and downstream demand may be more resilient than expected. However, there is a short-term uncertainty about the actual landing of the relevant national policies, which needs dynamic observation. In the late stage, the progress of the "North material south" and the change of the funds face at the end of the year also need specific attention.

Third, from the perspective of domestic and foreign economic cycles, the market for economic downturn expectations are becoming clearer and clearer, the steel market under the big cycle out of the independent market is not optimistic. But the steel market itself also has periodicity. Under the policy dividend of national supply-side reform and environmental protection to production capacity, the steel market has soared for more than three years. At present, it is close to the end of this wave of dividends, and there is little room to go to production capacity. Demand side in real estate began to decline, the manufacturing industry two major industrial chains recession, only infrastructure has a supporting base point, uncertainty is increasing. In addition, at the end of the year, funds were not abundant and market sentiment was cautious and high. Therefore, this winter storage market is probably not optimistic. (source: Lange steel)
Share to: