News
Steel price rebound aborted, next week heavy news gathering
This week, the domestic steel market has witnessed a sharp drop in volume and price, but compared with the broad shocks in the futures market, the spot still shows obvious resilience, with declines ranging from tens of yuan. The turnover situation has weakened, and the overall change is not very big. The daily turnover of threads is still more than 100,000 tons. As of November 9, 2018, the comprehensive price index of Langer Steel reached 166.5 points, down 1.65% from the same period last week and 1.31% from the same period last month; the price index of long steel reached 188.6 points, down 1.81% from the same period last week and up 1.18% from the same period last month; and the price index of sheet steel reached 146.5 points, down 1.66% from the same period last weekend and 3.84% from the same period last month.
With the gradual easing of the Sino-US trade war, the settling of the dust in the mid-term elections of the United States, the inactivity of the Federal Reserve and the gradual interest rate increase boots, the external factors are also weakening. The futures market has come out of two waves of V-shaped trend and ended with a fall again. Spot has not improved, indicating that the market is ambitious for the future. The outlook for economic outlook and fundamentals is still weak.
structural steel
Specific spot prices, monitoring data show that as of November 9, the average price of 25mm threaded steel in 10 major cities in China was 4627 yuan, 80 yuan lower than last Friday and 89 yuan higher than the same period last month. As of November 9, the average price of 6.5mm and HPB300 high-speed lines in 10 major cities in China was 4869 yuan, down 78 yuan from last Friday and up 17 yuan from the same period last month. As of November 9, the social stock of construction steel in 29 key cities in China reached 36.634 million tons, down 269.8 million tons, or 6.86%, 22.79% from the same period last month, and 20.07% from the same period last year.
Board
As for the price of hot-rolled coils, the monitoring data show that the average price of 5.5mm hot-rolled coils in 10 key cities in China was 4 008 yuan as of November 9, 87 yuan lower than last Friday and 232 yuan lower than the same period last month. In terms of inventory, as of November 9, the total inventory of hot rolled coils in 29 key cities in China reached 203.92 million tons, down by 74.4 million tons from last Friday, a margin of 3.53%, an increase of 7.2% over the same period last month, and an increase of 12.47% over the same period last year.
As for the price of cold rolled coils, as of November 9, the average price of 1.0mm cold rolled coils in 10 key cities in China was 4717 yuan, 63 yuan lower than last Friday's price and 142 yuan lower than the same period last month. In terms of inventory, as of November 9, the inventory of cold rolled sheets and coils in 24 key cities in China was 927.6 million tons, 7.45% lower than last Friday, 5.12% lower than the same period last month and 7.38% higher than the same period last year.
As for the price of medium and heavy plate, as of November 9, the price of 20mm medium plate in 10 key cities in China was 4209 yuan, 69 yuan lower than last Friday and 142 yuan lower than the same period last month. In terms of inventory, as of November 9, the total inventory of medium and heavy rolls in 29 key cities in China had reached 1029.2 million tons, which was 19.8 million tons lower than last Friday, an increase of 1.89% over the same period last month and 5.48% higher than the same period last year.
Forecast
This week's two V-shaped rebounds in the black sector in China ended with a fall. Does this herald the end of the cold winter in the spot market? Is there any trend in November? Specifically,
First of all, let's take a look at the main factors affecting the market in the near future.
Since November, the influencing factors from the market fundamentals have not changed significantly, except for the peripheral influencing factors which have a greater impact on the market mentality recently, mainly because market expectations have changed unconsciously, which includes two aspects: one is that the expectations of the future economy are weakening, which is domestic. The external macro environment is cyclical. Second, the expectation of future industry fundamentals is also weakening, which mainly includes the change of supply and demand market, the easing of production restriction, the consideration of seasonal weakening factors of demand and so on.
Futures are more sensitive to such future expectations, which also makes the futures market show frequent shocks, even in the case of huge short-term basis difference, it can not get out of the repair market. Spot recognition of the current fundamentals is relatively strong, which also weakens the spot market, but overall still shows a strong resilience.
At present, the process of "north timber going south" is accelerating, especially in Northeast and northwest areas, where the depots are falling rapidly. At present, the profits of steel mills are still relatively large. The profits of long timber are less than 800 yuan, while the profits of long timber are still more than 1000 yuan, and the output is still high. It is expected that the resources going south this year will be slightly more than in previous years, and the depots will be stagnant in the later period. Entering November, the main battlefield will turn to the Southern markets such as East and South China. Its digestion speed will play a vital role in the market. In addition, due to the influence of the Expo, there is a phenomenon of pressure port in shipping steel products, which totals about 210,000 tons at present, mainly for hot and cold coils, and the follow-up needs to be observed.
At present, however, the rate of warehouse decline is higher than that of the same period last year. Although the stocks of threaded steel mills have rebounded, they are in a controllable range.
In addition, the domestic macroeconomic aspects, 8 days of import and export data released. Data show that China exported 55.0 million tons of steel in October, an increase of 10.4% compared with the same period last year, and the cumulative export of steel in January-October was 58.413 million tons, a decrease of 9.3% compared with the same period last year. Imported steel products 1.138 million tons, an increase of 19.8% year-on-year; China imported 11.103 million tons of steel in January-October, an increase of 1.3% year-on-year. Export figures were stronger than expected. Another important data is that excavator data show great performance. Statistics show that excavator sales grew 44.9% year on year in October, while domestic market sales (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) increased by 39.6% year on year. Export sales of 1782 units, an increase of 104.6% over the same period. It shows that the effect of capital investment policy is obvious. In the long run, with the support of national financial policy, capital construction has reached the bottom and rebounded.
With the gradual easing of the Sino-US trade war, the settling of the dust in the mid-term elections of the United States, the inactivity of the Federal Reserve and the gradual interest rate increase boots, the external factors are also weakening. The futures market has come out of two waves of V-shaped trend and ended with a fall again. Spot has not improved, indicating that the market is ambitious for the future. The outlook for economic outlook and fundamentals is still weak.
structural steel
Specific spot prices, monitoring data show that as of November 9, the average price of 25mm threaded steel in 10 major cities in China was 4627 yuan, 80 yuan lower than last Friday and 89 yuan higher than the same period last month. As of November 9, the average price of 6.5mm and HPB300 high-speed lines in 10 major cities in China was 4869 yuan, down 78 yuan from last Friday and up 17 yuan from the same period last month. As of November 9, the social stock of construction steel in 29 key cities in China reached 36.634 million tons, down 269.8 million tons, or 6.86%, 22.79% from the same period last month, and 20.07% from the same period last year.
Board
As for the price of hot-rolled coils, the monitoring data show that the average price of 5.5mm hot-rolled coils in 10 key cities in China was 4 008 yuan as of November 9, 87 yuan lower than last Friday and 232 yuan lower than the same period last month. In terms of inventory, as of November 9, the total inventory of hot rolled coils in 29 key cities in China reached 203.92 million tons, down by 74.4 million tons from last Friday, a margin of 3.53%, an increase of 7.2% over the same period last month, and an increase of 12.47% over the same period last year.
As for the price of cold rolled coils, as of November 9, the average price of 1.0mm cold rolled coils in 10 key cities in China was 4717 yuan, 63 yuan lower than last Friday's price and 142 yuan lower than the same period last month. In terms of inventory, as of November 9, the inventory of cold rolled sheets and coils in 24 key cities in China was 927.6 million tons, 7.45% lower than last Friday, 5.12% lower than the same period last month and 7.38% higher than the same period last year.
As for the price of medium and heavy plate, as of November 9, the price of 20mm medium plate in 10 key cities in China was 4209 yuan, 69 yuan lower than last Friday and 142 yuan lower than the same period last month. In terms of inventory, as of November 9, the total inventory of medium and heavy rolls in 29 key cities in China had reached 1029.2 million tons, which was 19.8 million tons lower than last Friday, an increase of 1.89% over the same period last month and 5.48% higher than the same period last year.
Forecast
This week's two V-shaped rebounds in the black sector in China ended with a fall. Does this herald the end of the cold winter in the spot market? Is there any trend in November? Specifically,
First of all, let's take a look at the main factors affecting the market in the near future.
Since November, the influencing factors from the market fundamentals have not changed significantly, except for the peripheral influencing factors which have a greater impact on the market mentality recently, mainly because market expectations have changed unconsciously, which includes two aspects: one is that the expectations of the future economy are weakening, which is domestic. The external macro environment is cyclical. Second, the expectation of future industry fundamentals is also weakening, which mainly includes the change of supply and demand market, the easing of production restriction, the consideration of seasonal weakening factors of demand and so on.
Futures are more sensitive to such future expectations, which also makes the futures market show frequent shocks, even in the case of huge short-term basis difference, it can not get out of the repair market. Spot recognition of the current fundamentals is relatively strong, which also weakens the spot market, but overall still shows a strong resilience.
At present, the process of "north timber going south" is accelerating, especially in Northeast and northwest areas, where the depots are falling rapidly. At present, the profits of steel mills are still relatively large. The profits of long timber are less than 800 yuan, while the profits of long timber are still more than 1000 yuan, and the output is still high. It is expected that the resources going south this year will be slightly more than in previous years, and the depots will be stagnant in the later period. Entering November, the main battlefield will turn to the Southern markets such as East and South China. Its digestion speed will play a vital role in the market. In addition, due to the influence of the Expo, there is a phenomenon of pressure port in shipping steel products, which totals about 210,000 tons at present, mainly for hot and cold coils, and the follow-up needs to be observed.
At present, however, the rate of warehouse decline is higher than that of the same period last year. Although the stocks of threaded steel mills have rebounded, they are in a controllable range.
In addition, the domestic macroeconomic aspects, 8 days of import and export data released. Data show that China exported 55.0 million tons of steel in October, an increase of 10.4% compared with the same period last year, and the cumulative export of steel in January-October was 58.413 million tons, a decrease of 9.3% compared with the same period last year. Imported steel products 1.138 million tons, an increase of 19.8% year-on-year; China imported 11.103 million tons of steel in January-October, an increase of 1.3% year-on-year. Export figures were stronger than expected. Another important data is that excavator data show great performance. Statistics show that excavator sales grew 44.9% year on year in October, while domestic market sales (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) increased by 39.6% year on year. Export sales of 1782 units, an increase of 104.6% over the same period. It shows that the effect of capital investment policy is obvious. In the long run, with the support of national financial policy, capital construction has reached the bottom and rebounded.
